A cryptocurrency prediction market shows a greater than 50% chance that Iran will close its airspace again. This follows renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that have challenged a ceasefire. The Polymarket, based on Polygon, showed a 52% probability of a major closure, an increase from 42% the previous day. Over $3.70 million has been wagered on this outcome, making it one of Polymarket's most active bets.
Cryptocurrency bettors are pricing in higher odds on Iran closing its airspace for commercial flights after renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz challenged the ceasefire. Polymarket showed a 52% possibility that Iran initiates a “major closure” of its airspace, up from 42% the day before. A "major closure" is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays or other partial closures will not qualify. Over $3.70 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most actively traded bets on Polymarket.
The fragile ceasefire is now being tested. Trump announced a new initiative called “Project Freedom,” aimed at helping ships and crews from non-involved countries “safely” navigate out of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later said that the U.S. struck seven Iranian “fast boats” in the narrow waterway. Iranian state media disputed Trump’s claims, accusing the U.S. of instead striking civilian vessels, killing five people. In addition, Iran fired missiles at the UAE, striking a key UAE oil facility in response to “U.S. military adventurism” in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran reopened its airspace last week after a two-month closure triggered by U.S.-Israel strikes in late February. This came after President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire, citing requests from Pakistani officials to allow more time for negotiations.
Key Takeaways:
- Polymarket estimates a greater than 50% chance of Iran closing its airspace.
- The prediction is influenced by renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Over $3.7 million has been wagered on this outcome on Polymarket.
- Iran recently reopened its airspace after a two-month closure.