Odds of a U.S. government shutdown decreased on Polymarket and Kalshi after Donald Trump announced a bipartisan agreement. Polymarket traders priced the chance of a shutdown at 59%, down from 72% the previous day, with over $27 million wagered. Kalshi bettors also lowered their predictions to 59%, from 70.6%. The shift occurred after Trump stated he was working with Congress to fund the government until the end of September and urged lawmakers to support the bipartisan vote.
Prediction market odds of a U.S. government shutdown decreased after Donald Trump announced a bipartisan agreement. On Polymarket, traders priced in a 59% chance of a shutdown, a decrease from 72% the previous day. Over $27 million has been wagered on the outcome. Kalshi bettors also lowered their predictions from 70.6% to 59%. The change followed Trump's statement about working with Congress to fully fund the government until the end of the fiscal year in September. He urged lawmakers to support the bipartisan vote. Senate Democrats had earlier threatened to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security, raising the possibility of a partial government shutdown when federal funding expires. The longest U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days the previous year, halting key government functions and furloughing federal workers.