Arbitrage in prediction markets offers profit by exploiting price discrepancies across platforms. This guide covers tools like Oddspool, alert setups, fee calculations, execution speed, and liquidity.
Arbitrage: Free Money (Almost!)
Prediction markets are great, but sometimes prices diverge. That's arbitrage! Buy low on one platform, sell high on another. Think 'Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? (50%)' is mispriced? Profit!
Oddspool: Your Arbitrage Radar
Oddspool.com aggregates odds across markets like Polymarket. Use it to spot discrepancies. See, for example, 'Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? (50%)' listed at different prices? Bingo!
Alert! Alert!
Don't watch Oddspool 24/7. Set up alerts for your favorite markets, like 'Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? (50%)'. When prices move enough to make arbitrage profitable, you'll know.
Fees & Speed: The Killjoys
Fees eat into profits. Calculate the break-even point after fees. Speed is crucial. Others see the same opportunities! Liquidity matters too. A small spread on 'Who will the next Pope be? (0%)' might disappear before you can fill your order. Check https://predmarkets.online/#/markets for market details.
Example: Mars or Bust?
Imagine Polymarket lists 'Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? (50%)' at 45%, while another market has it at 55%. Factor in fees. Can you buy at 45% and sell at 55% and still make a profit? Act fast! Good luck, and may the odds (and your arbitrage profits) be ever in your favor!