Unlock profit opportunities by exploiting price discrepancies across prediction markets. Learn to identify and execute arbitrage trades using tools like Oddspool.
Arb Hunting 101 Arbitrage is exploiting price differences for the same asset across markets. Prediction markets, like Polymarket or Metaculus (https://predmarkets.online/#/markets), are ripe for this. See wildly different probabilities? That's potential profit!
Oddspool: Your Best Friend Oddspool.com aggregates probabilities. Spotting mispricings becomes much easier. For example, if Polymarket gives "Will Elon Musk visit Mars?" a 50% chance, and Metaculus says 30%, arbitrage might be possible.
Alerts & Break-Even Set up alerts (many platforms offer this) for significant price swings. Crucially, calculate your break-even after fees. Buying YES on one market and NO on another only profits if the difference exceeds transaction costs.
Speed & Liquidity Arbitrage windows close FAST. You need quick execution. Also, check liquidity. A huge price difference is useless if you can't buy or sell enough shares. A market on "Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?" might have poor liquidity.
Caveats Galore Arbitrage isn't risk-free. Prices can move against you. And occasionally, "glitches" cause temporary, unsustainable mispricings. Start small, test your system, and remember: even seemingly obvious opportunities can fail!