Arbitrage in prediction markets means profiting from price discrepancies across platforms. This guide shows you how to find and exploit these opportunities in real-time, like betting 'yes' on one platform and 'no' on another for the same event.
Arbitrage Hunting 101 Arbitrage is buying an asset in one market and selling it in another for a higher price. Think "Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?" is priced differently on two platforms? Time to pounce! (https://predmarkets.online/#/markets)
Oddspool.com: Your New Best Friend Oddspool aggregates prices across prediction markets. Use it to quickly spot discrepancies. See "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?" at 9% on one site and 5% on another? That's a potential arbitrage!
Alerts & Execution Speed Set up alerts for markets you follow. When a price gap appears, act FAST. Every second counts! Liquidity is key: ensure both markets have enough volume for your trade. Don't get stuck holding the bag on "Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?".
Fees & Break-Even Calculate fees! If buying 'yes' costs 2% and selling 'no' costs 2%, your combined profit must exceed 4% to break even. For example, if one market has "Who will the next Pope be?" at 8% and the other has it at 94%, you need to account for the fees. Don't let fees eat your profits on "Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?".
Liquidity Matters A massive price difference is useless if you can't execute your trade. Check the order books. Is there enough volume at the quoted prices? Small markets might offer big gaps, but lack the liquidity to fill large orders. Small profits are better than no profits!