Arbitrage in prediction markets means exploiting price differences across platforms. This guide provides practical steps for finding and executing arbitrage opportunities, focusing on speed and risk management.
Arb's the Word: A Practical Guide
Prediction markets, like Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus, offer juicy arbitrage ops. Think 'buy low, sell high,' but faster!
Oddpool.com: Your New Best Friend
Oddpool.com aggregates probabilities. See discrepancies instantly. Is 'Ramp or Brex IPO first?' at 93% on one market but lower elsewhere? That's your cue! (See https://predmarkets.online/#/markets)
Alerts & Break-Even
Set price alerts! Calculate break-even including fees. If a market charges 2%, your arb needs to beat that. Example: 'Tate win seat?' at 2%. A tiny move matters.
Speed Demons & Liquidity
Arb opportunities vanish faster than free pizza. Speed matters! Also, check liquidity. A huge price difference on a low-volume market is useless. Can you actually fill the order?
Mars or Bust? (And Other Considerations)
'Humans colonize Mars before 2050?' priced differently? Great! But consider: is one market more credible? Are there hidden conditions? 'Robot walk on Mars before human?' - think about why the prices differ. Smart arbing isn't just about speed; it's about understanding the market. 'OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?' - consider the news flow. Happy hunting!