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James Talarico's Chances Against John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton a Week Before Texas Runoff (Newsweek)

created: May 18, 2026, 06:30 PM
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A recent poll indicates that Democrat James Talarico is competitive in the Texas Senate race against Republican candidates John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. The poll, conducted by Texas Southern University, surveyed 1,223 likely voters between April 22 and May 6. It suggests a close race, with Cornyn leading Talarico by a single point and Paxton tied with Talarico. The outcome may depend on undecided voters.

According to a recent poll, Democrat James Talarico is within striking distance of flipping a Texas Senate seat. The poll was released ahead of the Republican runoff between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The poll suggests that regardless of whether Cornyn or Paxton wins the GOP runoff, Republicans are in for a competitive race against Talarico. In a matchup against Cornyn, Talarico received 44 percent support to Cornyn's 45 percent. Against Paxton, Talarico polled at 45 percent, the same as Paxton. Mark Jones, one of the poll's authors, suggested the close race reflects "collateral damage" from the Republican runoff, with Cornyn and Paxton damaging each other's reputations. Cornyn's campaign believes Paxton would be a risk for Republicans in November. The poll surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Key takeaways:

  • The Texas Senate race between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton is expected to be competitive.
  • The Republican runoff has potentially weakened both Cornyn and Paxton.
  • Undecided voters will likely play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.