A report from Citizens JMP reveals that retail traders on prediction markets incur greater median losses compared to those betting on sports. The findings indicate that sharper traders are profiting at the expense of retail users.
According to Citizens JMP, the median return for prediction market users was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, while sportsbook users experienced a -5% return in the same period. The report highlights that individuals trading over $500,000 on prediction markets achieved a median ROI of +2.6%, but all other cohorts below that threshold faced negative returns, with those trading less than $100 losing an average of -26.8%. The platforms are attracting a younger demographic compared to traditional sportsbooks.