Tucker Carlson's rise to 7 percent in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination prediction markets, despite lacking a campaign, committee, or party apparatus, highlights his significant independent media presence. While some dismiss the idea of a President Carlson, his refusal to rule out a run and his positioning on the isolationist "America First" wing of the Republican Party present a potential challenge to traditional candidates. With Trump's approval rating declining and Carlson's large unmediated audience, some, like former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, suggest Carlson could defeat Trump in a hypothetical race.
Tucker Carlson has reached 7 percent on Polymarket to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, despite not having a campaign or party apparatus. Carlson has not ruled out a presidential run. Trump's job approval rating is at 34 percent, the lowest of his second term. The share of Americans who say Trump “keeps his promises” has fallen. Among Hispanic Trump voters, approval has dropped 27 points since early 2025, and among Republicans, the share calling him a promise-keeper has slid by 14 points since the election.
Carlson has positioned himself on the isolationist “America First” wing of the Republican Party, clashing with Trump over U.S. military action in Iran. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene suggested that Carlson “would beat Trump if he ran.” Since his dismissal from Fox News in 2023, Carlson has rebuilt a large independent media presence, amassing hundreds of millions of followers across YouTube and X.
Key takeaways:
- Carlson's presence in prediction markets indicates potential influence.
- Trump's declining approval may create an opening for other candidates.
- Carlson's "America First" stance resonates with some voters.
- Carlson has a significant independent media audience.