New data reveals high win rates in defense-related bets on Polymarket, suggesting potential insider trading. A report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective indicates that low-probability military bets are winning at rates exceeding typical expectations.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective analyzed over 435,000 settled Polymarket contracts from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, finding that military-linked bets have success rates surpassing 50%, unlike the usual 14% for political markets. The report highlights that markets related to military and defense are more prone to information asymmetries, raising concerns about insider trading and specialized knowledge influencing outcomes.