Prediction markets indicate that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted, with oil traders anticipating higher prices. Current odds suggest only a 28% chance of normal shipping traffic by April 30.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, has been largely shut down since late February. Despite a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. and claims of reopening, ships continue to turn back due to safety concerns. The world's largest shipping association, BIMCO, has advised vessels to avoid the area, citing threats from uncleared mines.